21/03/2003
Houebuilder Swan Hill's results for the year to December showed pre-tax profits increased 20% to £5.9m, though this was some way below the expectations of its broker Brewin Dolphin. There is also the spectre of softening property markets in its area of operations plus an £8.8m deficit on its pension scheme. As a result the shares have fallen from the 80p level at which we originally recommended them in August last year, and are unlikely to soar much in the short-term unless evidence emerges of a revival in house prices. On the positive side, the asset position remains strong with an NAV of £77.4m being a long way above the current market capitalisation. This should help the underpin the valuation, as should the dividend yield - which is now 6.7% after total payouts of 4.4p for the year 2002, payable from total earnings per share of 7.6p. But there is still some uncertainty as a result of the group's failure to dispose of its two commercial property holdings. These are a large mixed use scheme held in a joint venture with the local authority at Cagnes in the South of France and a 67%-occupied retail complex at Stockton-on-Tees. We would recommend that you should keep holding, on the strength of its assets and the possibility of a bid.
| Market cap: | £38.8m |
| PE Forecast: | n/a |
| Share price: | 65p |
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