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ASOS into the black

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03/03/2004

In just one month, online fashion and accessories retailer ASOS has risen 55 per cent from our original recommendation price to 10.88p. This very welcome upward spurt happened as chief executive Nick Robertson confirmed that the group had recorded its first pre-tax profit of £350,000 in the year to December after turnover rose 71 per cent to £7 million.

After generating £1.4 million of positive cashflow last year, the group reversed its perilous cash position at the halfway stage to record net current assets of £500,000.

The company, which Robertson describes as a 'Top Shop online' aiming to appeal to young ladies, has over 30,000 customers visiting the site each day, with between three per cent and seven per cent making purchases. The average spend per customer is £45. The most popular item sold last year was a ceramic hair-straightener retailing at £70. 'We sold hundreds a day,' says Robertson.

Investors should continue to hold the stock as, now that it is generating profits, any extra sales should drop to the bottom line as the costs of running the website remain fixed.

Having said that, the business, like most retailers, is heavily reliant on a busy Christmas period. For this reason ASOS is changing its year-end to March and results for the 15 months to that date will be released on 30 June. House broker Seymour Pierce is still predicting a £400,000 pre-tax profit, or 0.6p of earnings. This gives a forward p/e of 18.1. Hold firm.

Stadium – in the right place at the right time

Stadium, the restructured electronic manufacturing services provider, cheered followers with calendar 2003 numbers ahead of expectations despite 'the dollar effect' and a bullish dividend hike to 2.9p (2.8p).

Chief executive Nigel Rogers, unveiled a 49 per cent rise in underlying profits to £1.9 million, while at the bottom line a £1.3 million loss was converted into a £1.9 million profit. Borrowings were cut by £2.9 million to £1.6 million. And although turnover on continuing operations eased from £36.1 million to £34.8 million due to a fall in UK electronics sales, Stadium Asia saw a 15 per cent sales rise to £14.5 million – amounting to 22 per cent growth in local currency terms.

Speaking to Growth Company Investor, Rogers said, 'We're starting to win more OEM business, which is helping our margins higher.' Overall this was a year of consolidation, with several important customer relationships brought to fruition, accounts maturing, new initiatives undertaken to drive future growth, and investment in production capacity carried out in China. With its Chinese operations, Rogers says Stadium is 'in the right place at the right time' as more and more firms look to 'Far East sources for their manufacturing'. Affirming his faith in Stadium's prospects, Rogers exercised options at 55p and bought a further tranche at 67p.

First recommended on these pages at 36.5p back in April 2002, and now trading at 68p we remain big supporters of the company. Don't cash in yet.

Dickinson Legg splutters

Engineer Dickinson Legg, a recommendation at 30.75p, has declared a first interim dividend of 0.5p despite operating in some tough markets.

Chairman Barry Stevenson revealed operating profits before exceptionals fell to £116,000 (£647,000) for the half to December, on a lower turnover of £18.5 million (£21.8 million). He explained the fall in both sales and profits was 'entirely attributable' to the Dickinson Legg primary tobacco processing equipment business, which kicked off the year with a lower order book. This is a company that traditionally suffers from a lumpy order intake, and turnover waned from £16.7 million to £11.3 million, although Dickinson Legg remained in profit, and has won new orders for its products.

Margins are also tight over at Spooner Industries, the air-drying equipment-maker operating in a fiercely competitive market – the strong order book at the start of the year helped sales and operating profits higher, though recent orders have disappointed.

Looking ahead, the outlook is quite downbeat. There's no evidence of an improvement in its markets, and the overall group performance 'is likely to be slightly below the current market expectations'. Yet forecasts for the year suggest £45 million sales and a £1.2 million profit after goodwill, giving EPS of 1.6p and a 1.5p dividend. This gives Dickinson a weighty 17 forward p/e, but the shares do yield 5.3 per cent. Still worth holding at 27.25p.

Freeport boosted by Excalibur

Discount 'retail village' operator Freeport has announced another excellent set of interim results. For the six months to January turnover improved 13 per cent to £10.6 million, while pre-tax profits jumped 11 per cent to £6.7 million.

Freeport, which owns eight outlets – six in the UK and two in Europe – benefited from the opening of its Excalibur City mall on the Czech/Austrian border. It has also acquired the remaining 50 per cent equity in Freeport Stoke. The Freeport Lisbon Designer outlet in Portugal is on track for completion in June 2004.

Net debt stands at £108 million but will soon be eradicated as the company also announced a major transaction, subject to shareholder approval. In line with its strategy to dispose of mature assets to gain capital to develop new Freeport centres, Freeport has agreed to make fund management giant Hermes a 99 per cent partner in its Freeport Limited Partnership.

Under the deal, Hermes will control the outlet villages at Braintree, Castleford and Fleetwood and buy Freeport's interest in the Talke partnership, which holds the Talke outlet mall in Jersey. The deal is worth £245.5 million, a four per cent premium on its June 2003 property valuation.

The maximum net proceeds will be £126.21 million after a £118.34 million adjustment for existing debts. If approved, shareholders will receive a special dividend of 105p per share (representing 68 per cent of the net proceeds of the deal) and a share swap consolidation of four existing shares into three new shares. This represents a good deal for all those who backed the group on our advice at 366.5p in July 2002. Back the proposals.

Chemring gets USA boost

Defence group Chemring announced that its US subsidiary Alloy Surfaces has been awarded a $25 million (£13.1 million) contract by the US department of defence to supply special material infrared decoys to protect army helicopters and air force transport aircraft. Alloy also received a recent order worth $5.3 million for decoys for the US Navy.

The positive news follows Chemring's results for the year to October, which saw turnover improve from £96.3 million to £120.6 million and profits before tax charge up 124 per cent to £12.1 million. During 2003, the company sold its Chemical Coatings division and Kembrey Wiring Systems, both non-core businesses, for £3.4 million after costs.

Chemring also has an insurance claim pending from a fatal accident at its Kilgore site, which it believes will be resolved in its favour soon. Monies gained from the claim will be used to reduce Chemring's debt – gearing stood at 72 per cent in October, a 20 per cent reduction on the previous year.

While the shares have risen significantly in the past year to 422.5p, broker Evolution Beeson Gregory has forecast pre-tax profits for 2004 of £14.9 million on £131.8 million sales. EPS is slated to come in at 36.6p, providing a prospective p/e of 12.1. First tipped in December 2000 at 302.5p, we reckon it could be worth adding to your holdings.

Sygen's genetic growth

Sygen, the animal breeding biotechnology and genetics play and a Growth Company Investor recommendation at 38.5p, delivered progress in the half to December despite the slow pig-market recovery. Profit before tax and exceptionals lifted 16 per cent to £3.6 million, on turnover of £63.4 million (£63 million).

PIC, the core division providing genetically superior pig stock to pork producers, reported profits in all regions in the half year. Volumes at PIC were five per cent higher, and this, along with rising sales from the biotech side (gross profits from biotechnology were 17 per cent higher at £2.1 million), helped Sygen push up its profits. Encouragingly, PIC should put in a stronger second half, with gradual stronger market conditions expected in the pig industry.

Shrimp genetics business SyAqua, the first foray into a species other than pigs, lost £500,00 on an operational basis, although this was mostly due to the seasonality of the business. But it now operates in three markets, having acquired Brazil's largest shrimp breeder Aquatec in October for £7.4 million in cash. This added to its businesses in Mexico and in Thailand, the world's biggest shrimp-producing country. SyAqua should contribute to profits in the second half, as it did last year.

Half-time net cash dropped to £15.2 million (£20.2 million), reflecting the Brazilian deal. There's still upside in the shares. Add.

Electric Word inches towards profits

Julian Turner, chief executive of specialist publisher Electric Word, is in a buoyant mood. His company, which specialises in the supply of subscription publications to the health, education and local government sector, is inching ever closer towards profitability.

Sales in the year to November leapt 22 per cent to £3 million, operating cashflow was positive at £121,000, and, if you exclude new product development costs and other exceptional charges, a pre-tax profit of £93,991 was recorded. Add these back in and the pre-tax loss came to £418,000 – below market expectations.

Turner himself has taken a lot of pleasure from the fact that seven new products were launched during the year and that Electric's attendant conference business now accounts for 22 per cent of revenues. Equally important though is the fact that income from subscription accounted for 75 per cent of revenues. Deferred revenues are currently running at £2.2 million.

At the back end of 2003 Electric snapped up PFP Publishing, a supplier of nine different advice and management guide products to those running schools, for £1.1 million, thus strengthening its education division. According to Turner, all the sectors the company operates in are looking positive and he expects to launch at least two new titles this year. He is also hopeful that Electric Word will be able to hit breakeven by the end of the year. Seymour Pierce have the group posting a profit of £20,000 in 2004 on revenues improved 50 per cent to £4.6 million. The shares have almost doubled from our 4.5p recommendation price in late 2002. They are not to be sold.

Quantica doubles up

At the current 56.5p, this recruitment and training specialist has almost doubled from the price at which we recommended it in the autumn of 2003. The price has surged because the company has delivered on its promises.

In the year to December, sales came in at £24.9 million against £26.1 million last time. However, net fee income, a more meaningful 'sales' figure for recruitment ventures, improved from £11.7 million to £12 million and the pre-tax line showed a profit of £0.8 million against a harrowing loss last time of £2.4 million.

In amongst the stats there were a few exceptional costs, notably the £600,000 hit the group took from closing an office, but otherwise everything is in order and Quantica is more than primed to take advantage of the improving sentiment and spending in its markets.

Its training business is thriving – fee income grew from £1.8 million to £3.1 million – while the healthcare and construction contract businesses (the hiring out of temporary workers) are going great guns. Even the technology side is showing signs of improvement. On the permanent placement side, gains were posted in the search & selection and legal fields.

As well as growth from its existing businesses, the next 12 months should see the group increase its expansion beyond its Yorkshire heartland and continue to reduce its £6.8 million debt pile. Ian Jermin at broker Baird is looking for pre-tax profits of £2.3 million for 2004 and earnings of 4p. This looks eminently achievable. Hold.

Hunting hopes are high

An energy services company supporting the biggest oil and gas companies, Hunting announces calendar 2003 numbers on 4 March. Hopes for a good year are high following strong interim figures – turnover surged 39 per cent to £605.7 million, profits pre-tax moved up from £8.1 million to £8.4 million, EPS burgeoned by 31 per cent to 1.7p and the half-time payout was lifted 25 per cent.

After a slow start, activity in the oil and gas industry improved during the half, helping its two main businesses Gibson Energy and Hunting Energy. Hunting recently mopped up the 36 per cent it didn't already own in Gibson from ChevronTexaco for £45.2 million cash, financed through debt. Gibson provides marketing and transportation services to the Canadian oil and gas industry for liquid energy products, and made £12 million pre-tax on £638 million turnover in 2002. Obviously that deal should enhance Hunting's earnings in 2004.

As for Houston-based Hunting Energy, which supplies tubular products and services, its first-half operating profits waned from £4.8 million to £2 million. But analysts expect that North American rig activity and production volumes improved in the second half-year, boding well for the full year figures.

Forecasts suggest a £20.5 million profit and earnings of 7.5p for 2003, rising to £22.1 million and 13.3p for 2004. Although the balance sheet is a bit more stretched than before, the shares trade on 14.6 times 2003 earnings, dropping to a multiple of just 8.3 for 2004. The shares haven't been stellar performers for us yet, but they are worth picking up ahead of the results if you haven't yet got exposure.


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