Companies: ANTO    DDG    KMR    LMI    RIO   

With the talk in the markets all about downturns and recessions on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific, mining analysts are asking what effect this economic gloom could have on prices of metals and shares. Gold's $10 spurt to $272 an ounce in the run-up to Wednesday's Bank of England gold auction was widely attributed to 'technical factors' connected with short covering and gold loans, but gold has a habit of defying the experts (and did well in the 1930s).

Some other metals, with claims to 'special cases' because of new technology or new regulations (such as on car emissions) or continuing shortages, may outface economics. Copper is held to be one, on shortage grounds - Antofagasta certainly bounded up from 477.5p when we mentioned it last week to 539p, before easing to 519p, still ahead, but possibly worth lightening your load unless you are in for the medium- to long-term.

Platinum, palladium, tantalum and other metals such as titanium are all claimed to be special cases, though platinum counter Lonmin has eased from recent highs to 980p (where it is still worth holding on long term and possible bid grounds). Presumably a prolonged, severe recession would eventually have an impact on them, but that has not yet been officially declared.

One formidable mining group which remains upbeat is Rio Tinto, still in its new acquisitive mode pursuing iron ore interests around the globe. Rio's latest annual report cites low stock levels, which promise to intensify any price bounces.

Rio spent $4 billion (£2.7 billion) last year on acquisitions, including North, Comalco, Ashton and Peabody Coal and increased its debt by $3 billion in the process. Among those who believe this will pay off are analysts at Cannacord, Canadian parent of London's T Hoare & Co).

They have a target price of £15 a share for Rio, now standing at £13.25. They could be right.

Irish mining hopeful Kenmare Resources is stepping up the process of bringing its Moma ilmenite deposit near the coast of Mozambique to development. The company, whose London-quoted shares stand at 19.75p, is thinking of coming to shareholders for £6.6 million out of a total of £146 million which is reckoned to be needed to take the project into production.

This is a hefty sum, set against Kenmare's £22.2 million stock market price tag, but company fans argue the project could be well worth it. Ilmenite is a feedstock for titanium, used in paint and the manufacture of products needing its combination of strength and lightness, from aircraft to electronics - and pundits talk of a worldwide shortage of one billion tonnes of titanium feedstocks developing by the end of the decade.

After spending some £13 million on a feasibility study and drilling, Kenmare says independent sources put Moma's total reserves and resources at 53.44 million tonnes, of which nearly 14 million is an indicated reserve. The company plans to mine 403 million tonnes of ore at 4.33 per cent ilmenite.

Kenmare (which once used to be Algy Cluff's oil exploration vehicle) hopes to go into full production in 2004, producing 625,000 tonnes a year of ilmenite, as well as smaller quantities of zircon and rutile. The company says it can extract material at $30 (£20) a tonne and sell it at $100.

Kenmare says its feasibility study puts a net present value at £136 million on Moma, at a ten per cent discount rate. It expects £30 million cash flow in its first full year.

The company has been talking to potential industrial customers about lining up contracts. It is also seeking to tap a range of Arab and other banks for the lion's share of the funding.

Despite its image, Mozambique is a good place to do business, insists Kenmare. The regime, fiscal and political, is friendly, the civil war is long over and the floods are hundreds of miles away.

Kenmare, which is also considering a new tantalum project, could offer significant long-term potential. The shares have risen from 11p already this year, though it would be prudent to wait for the terms of the impending fundraising first and then decide what fresh action to take.

Guernsey-registered Aussie miner Zimplats is close to signing heads of agreement with a major mining group to develop the Ngezi platinum project in Zimbabwe, say company spokesmen. A deal could be imminent and development could begin as early as next month.

Zimplats is in for 100 per cent of the part of the Hartley platinum complex which it had been developing with Australian giant BHP, when BHP pulled out some time ago. Ngesi, which is part of this, is an opencast project, with, bulls claim, a potential life of 20 years, using decline mining, before a need to go underground.

BHP's mining approach at Hartley has been severely criticised and analysts argue different methods could yield far better results. Robert Mugabe's hostility to farmers has not yet been extended in the same way to miners, although some gold and other mineral producers have found themselves obliged to sell at unrealistic and disadvantageous exchange rates.

That means the shares at the equivalent of 34.5p are likely to remain speculative. But the deal now being negotiated just might provide a welcome shot in the arm.

Shares in Aim-listed Conroy Diamonds and Gold have seesawed furiously this year, bottoming early on at 13.5p and peaking at 41p. On Monday, 5.5p was sliced off the price to 28.5p, clipping the gains made after the British Geological Survey had endorsed the company's Tullybuck-Lisglassan gold find near the Irish border, saying the deposit is part of a much bigger gold deposit.

Conroy had argued that Tullybuck-Lisglassan, part of the 'Longford-Down massif', could be part of something much bigger. The official British report, part of a European Union survey, adds formidable strength to that view. Sceptics in the Irish resources community have been quick to pour cold water on Conroy's find. And it is true that the company has for years had little to show for its enthusiasm.

But this time it could be for real. Conroy is likely to continue volatile, but it could be worth holding some for the ride.

Agricola Resources, the Ofex-traded gem miner whose rubies will soon be on sale at two Phillips auctions, says it is close to a deal to source emeralds from New York gemstone group Gupta Gemhouse. David Hargreaves, Agricola's boss, says he wants to pass some of the US group's supply of emeralds from Zambia through Agricola's own treatment process.

This would, he claims, circumvent the usual cutting, treating and wholesaling chain and allow Agricola to market emeralds, as well as rubies, to consumers at prices embodying the massive retail mark-up. Some of the first rubies from Agricola's own mine in Malawi will come under the hammer at Phillips' auctions in London on 24 April and Geneva on 15 May.

Floated in December by David Williamson Associates at 1p, Agricola's tightly held shares have fluctuated this year between 2.75p and 5.5p. For the strong nerved only at 4.25p.