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05/10/2007

Successful testing of Tullow Oil’s Maputa-3 appraisal well in Uganda will lead to production this year and is the latest in a run of successes for the company. Tullow was recommended by Growth Company Investor four years ago at 72p and is currently at 593.5p, sporting a value of £4.2 billion. Partial profit-taking might be prudent, but there could still be more to come – as there could also be at Hardy Oil & Gas, at 390p, with falling sales and profits countered by promising discoveries in India’s Cauvery and Gujarat-Saurashtra basins.

Peter Hambro Mining has once again delivered strong growth, with interim pre-tax profits up 75 per cent to £15.9 million and first-half Russian gold production raised 24 per cent to 134,000 oz. At £11.76, down from a £17 high, the shares could find favour again.

Celtic in the frame

In August, GCI stressed the speculative potential of Celtic Resources at 197p, with gold, molybdenum and copper prospects in Kazakhstan and Russia, following the purchase of a hefty slice by Russian tycoon Alex Mordashev’s Severstal steel group. The shares are now 239.5p, after Celtic rejected a conditional approach from Severstal at 220p.

Severstal has now increased its stake to 26.6 per cent at 232p, a second suitor appeared and Severstal has upped its bid to 270p. At 268.7p, hold on.

ConsMins contest brings gains
The bid battle for Australian manganese and nickel play Consolidated Minerals has sent the shares up to 203p, fractionally higher than the A$4.50 (193.5p) recommended offer from Ukrainian billionaire Gennadiy Bogolyubov’s Palmary group. That is more than three times the recommendation on these pages at 66.5p last October.

The other contenders – ex-ConsMins boss Michael Kiernan’s Territory Resources and former BHP Billiton chief Brian Gilbertson’s Pallinghurst – may or may not accept this outcome, although Kiernan is understood to think he can obtain some pickings from Palmary. Hold on for now.

Congo quandaries
A mining review instituted by the Democratic Republic of Congo has caused consternation in some quarters. Phil Edmonds’s Central African Mining and Exploration Company (CAMEC) has had to drop its £700 million bid for Toronto-listed Katanga Mining after a share price fall to 25.5p from 97p in June 2006, where the very boldest might discern a recovery punt.

CAMEC says it intends to appeal the withdrawal of its licences, obtained through Zimbabwean business tycoon Billy Rautenbach. Meanwhile, shares in uranium play Brinkley Mining, floated on AIM in June 2006, have dropped to a depressed 11p despite the group having signed its joint venture deal with state bodies.

Congo-focused copper and cobalt group Nikanor, which also wants to merge with Katanga, has lost 200p since May, falling to 515.5p. Katanga, whose Kamato copper prospect is the bait, has held steady at the equivalent of 912p and could prove the best bet.

Hambledon nears production

Loss-making Hambledon Mining expects gold production from its Ognevka tailings processing plant in east Kazakhstan to start later this year, along with its Sekisovskoye gold mine in the same region. The company reckons Sekisovskoye could begin producing at the rate of 40,000 oz a year from its open pit, before raising that to 100,000 oz annually once underground mining starts.

Reserve estimates for Sekisovskoye suggest a probable 213,362 oz of gold at a low grade of 1.6 grammes per tonne, with 347,000 oz of silver at 2.6 grammes a tonne from the open pit. Highlighted by GCI two years ago at 8.75p, Hambledon shares at 20.5p could go further over the longer term.


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